CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-05T07:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26352/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen W and S in SOHO and STEREO A associated with long duration M1.6-class solar flare/filament eruption near S10W68. Faint shock presents as a full halo with preference towards the west. Around 2023-08-05T06:45Z, a dark filament near the western portion of the disk is seen lifting off, becoming a bright structure as it leaves the disk towards the west. A somewhat unclear arrival signature, affected by low quality solar wind data from both DSCOVR and ACE during this time period. Arrival signature: initial increase in B_total from 7.4 nT to 10.5 nT, followed by another increase to 13.6 nT at 11:54Z. The signature looks like a messy sheath arrival and it is possible that there is a flux rope/magnetic cloud at ~2023-08-08T01Z but this could be another CME arrival (LASSOS team). The current arrival may also have been observed at STEREO A around 2023-08-07T08:46Z. Alternatively, this could be the combined arrival of 2023-08-04T04:17Z and 2023-08-04T04:49Z CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T11:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T22:30Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 61.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 15.25 hour(s)
Difference: -11.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-08-06T19:52Z
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